The market gets roughly one signing in three right. The SigningLab model reaches a markedly higher, validated hit rate, and it is more accurate than the clubs in every league we track. We publish the result every season, favorable or not. What stays proprietary is the model's internal architecture, its features and their weighting, not the results.
Each row compares the club hit rate in a league (the market on its own) with the result of the SigningLab Model in the same league, over the validated and published period. A darker bar indicates a higher hit rate.
| League | Market hit rate | SigningLab Model |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Pro League | 36% | 88% |
| Primera A (Colombia) | 39% | 86% |
| Super Lig (Turkey) | 42% | 86% |
| Liga 1 (Peru) | 36% | 85% |
| Liga MX (Mexico) | 41% | 84% |
| Brasileirao Serie B | 30% | 84% |
| Primera Division (Chile) | 36% | 83% |
| Primeira Liga (Portugal) | 34% | 82% |
| Bundesliga | 39% | 81% |
| Serie A (Italy) | 38% | 81% |
| J1 League (Japan) | 35% | 81% |
| La Liga (Spain) | 43% | 81% |
| Liga Profesional (Argentina) | 32% | 81% |
| Brasileirao Serie A | 36% | 81% |
| Premier League | 38% | 80% |
| Championship (England, 2nd tier) | 41% | 80% |
| Ligue 1 (France) | 35% | 79% |
| MLS (USA) | 32% | 78% |
| Eredivisie (Netherlands) | 37% | 78% |
| Pro League (Belgium) | 32% | 76% |
| Premiership (Scotland) | 29% | 75% |
Percentages rounded. The market figure is the club hit rate in each league. The model figure is the validated, out-of-sample result of the SigningLab Model in the same league and period. No model is correct every time; the commitment is a materially higher hit rate than the status quo, reduced uncertainty, and a record that can be audited.
A signing is counted as a success when the player performed at or above the baseline expected for the level of investment, read on minutes, performance, availability and collective contribution. Outcomes at the level expected count as neutral; clear underperformance counts as a miss. The same definition is applied across leagues and seasons so the comparison is consistent.
Every projection is recorded and time-stamped before the outcome is known, so there is no future data and no hindsight. Validation is out-of-sample and walk-forward: the model is trained only on seasons before the one it is scored on, and each competition is calibrated on its own terms. The record is published season after season, whether the result is favorable or not.
To read the numbers correctly, four ideas should not be confused with one another.
Last updated: 2026. Source: SigningLab annual validation. Machine-readable league data at facts.html and rankings.json.